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Before burying the recently concluded NFL season, savvy gamblers will want to sift through those decaying bones to determine if the gridiron carcass left any clues that could be used to uncover a successful NFL betting strategy when the 2008 campaign kicks off in September.
One angle that has clicked for several straight years again took the blue ribbon in 2007: If you want to be an NFL betting winner, bet a winner. Simply, teams that were straight up (SU) winners on the field also were highly successful at the windows, against the spread (ATS).
In fact, of the 13 teams that posted regular season winning records, 12 of them also had winning marks against the spread. The 13th team, the Washington Redskins, was .500 ATS, meaning that no team with a straight up winning record had a losing record against the spread. The overall pointspread log for these 13 teams was 126-77-5, a 62.0 win percentage, a figure for which any NFL betting enthusiast would sell his throwback jersey.
Yes, hindsight always is 20/20 but was it so difficult to predict that teams such as the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Seahawks and Cowboys would have straight up winning records? Some shrewd bettors even allowed the oddsmakers and bookmakers to do their homework for them, relying on regular season over/under win total propositions as the basis for their wagers. The above-mentioned teams all had totals of 10 victories or more entering last season.
On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that had straight up losing records, only one, the Buffalo Bills, had a winning mark against the spread. Maybe it was the snow that was the great pointspread equalizer in Buffalo.
Those 15 teams were 92-141-7 against the spread, a cover percentage of .394, meaning that those who wisely bet against those teams collected on more than 60 percent of their wagers.
Predictably enough, the four teams that finished with straight up .500 records also were right around that mark against the spread.
| NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU WINNING RECORDS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | SU | ATS |
| New England Patriots | 16-0 | 10-6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 13-3 | 12-3-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| San Diego Chargers | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| New York Giants | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | 9-6-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 8-7-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Washington Redskins | 9-7 | 7-7-2 |
| Total (13 teams) | 145-63 | 126-77-5 |
| NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU LOSING RECORDS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | SU | ATS |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-15 | 5-9-2 |
| St. Louis Rams | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| New York Jets | 4-12 | 6-9-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | 7-8-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4-12 | 7-8-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 3-13 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Cincinnati | 7-9 | 6-9-1 |
| Detroit | 7-9 | 6-9-1 |
| Chicago | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Carolina | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Buffalo | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Total (15 teams) | 79-161 | 92-141-7 |
| NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU .500 RECORDS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | SU | ATS |
| Houston Texans | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8-8 | 7-7-2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Total (4 teams) | 32-32 | 32-30-2 |
This article was written by Luken Karel for
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